Illegal border crossings along the U.S.-Mexico border have seen a significant decline, dropping over 40% since December and maintaining relative stability throughout the first four months of 2024. This development provides a modest relief for President Biden, who has faced scrutiny over immigration, a contentious issue with implications for his reelection campaign.
Typically, early spring witnesses a surge in border crossings. However, this year, for the first time since Biden assumed office, such a spike did not materialize.
In April, approximately 130,000 migrants entered the U.S. illegally from Mexico, a figure that, although high historically, represents a decrease from the levels seen in February and March, according to recent U.S. enforcement data.
U.S. officials attribute this decline primarily to a robust crackdown on migrants by the Mexican government. Employing military patrols and highway checkpoints, Mexican authorities have been intercepting around 8,000 U.S.-bound migrants daily, as reported by officials from both countries.
Mexico’s initiative followed a surge in illegal crossings in December, which reached nearly 250,000, an unprecedented high. This surge further impacted Biden’s poll ratings on border security.
While former President Donald Trump continues to critique Biden’s immigration policies at campaign events, the relative calm along the border has alleviated some pressure on the president to announce stricter enforcement measures that might alienate certain Democratic constituents.
Notably, this spring’s decline in crossings is unusual. According to Adam Isacson, a border security analyst, the only other instance of such a decline during springtime this century was in 2017, following Trump’s inauguration and his promises of mass deportations.
However, U.S. border officials caution that the coming weeks will be crucial, as May traditionally witnesses a surge in illegal entries. The number of migrants intercepted by Mexican authorities in recent months far exceeds the number deported by Mexico, suggesting a sizable population awaiting an opportunity until the crackdown subsides.
Already, signs of a potential upswing are evident, particularly in the San Diego area, where smugglers are increasingly sending groups of migrants from South America and Asia to cross through mountainous regions. Consequently, the San Diego sector of U.S. Customs and Border Protection has become the busiest along the southern border for the first time since 1997, surpassing sectors in Arizona and Texas.
